R Measuring Pu= blic Opinion
Thu= rsday, May 14, 2009
9:0= 0 PM
Survey or poll
Letters to politicians
Talking selectively to people
Listening to news paper editors
Incomplete pic= ture however
Letters more likely from those with strong opinions and writing skills (ie educatio= n)
Polls may put = public opinion in the hands of the pollsters
Sponsored by groups with an agenda
But most accurate method we have
Early Polling Methods
Straw poll
Unscientific
19th century
Just ask people their opinion
Like in malls or with newspaper surveys
But not a random sampling of people
Must get all people
(Like today controversy about cell phones)
Emergence of Scientific Polling
Started after World War 1
Businesses
started doing market research
Using math
Random samples/sampling
George Gallup started probability sampling techniques
1940: Roosevelt became first pres to use them
Polls and Poli= tics
Have become a divine source of wisdom
Bill Clinton used them a lot
Some found this negative
Bush claimed he did not use them
Use "crafted talk" to make extreme positions sound better
Tracking polls on TV
Easy to do
Can be fairly accurate on well defined issues
But inaccurate when public has not made up mind
Wording plays a large part
Self selecting (call in) polls are for entertainment purposes only, as people who call in are more likely to complain
Often times polls are just for show
To reinforce an opinion
Some tricks
Push poll where if people answer "wrong" are told something bad
Or phony polls which is a disguised sales pitch
Polls may lead some good candidates to drop out
Polls make campaigns focus on electorate and meeting their needs
People may not be making the best decision
Should politicians listen more to their instincts?
But they do keep politicians accountable
R Measuring Pu= blic Opinion
Thu= rsday, May 14, 2009
9:0= 0 PM
Survey or poll
Letters to politicians
Talking selectively to people
Listening to news paper editors
Incomplete pic= ture however
Letters more likely from those with strong opinions and writing skills (ie educatio= n)
Polls may put = public opinion in the hands of the pollsters
Sponsored by groups with an agenda
But most accurate method we have
Early Polling Methods
Straw poll
Unscientific
19th century
Just ask people their opinion
Like in malls or with newspaper surveys
But not a random sampling of people
Must get all people
(Like today controversy about cell phones)
Emergence of Scientific Polling
Started after World War 1
Businesses
started doing market research
Using math
Random samples/sampling
George Gallup started probability sampling techniques
1940: Roosevelt became first pres to use them
Polls and Poli= tics
Have become a divine source of wisdom
Bill Clinton used them a lot
Some found this negative
Bush claimed he did not use them
Use "crafted talk" to make extreme positions sound better
Tracking polls on TV
Easy to do
Can be fairly accurate on well defined issues
But inaccurate when public has not made up mind
Wording plays a large part
Self selecting (call in) polls are for entertainment purposes only, as people who call in are more likely to complain
Often times polls are just for show
To reinforce an opinion
Some tricks
Push poll where if people answer "wrong" are told something bad
Or phony polls which is a disguised sales pitch
Polls may lead some good candidates to drop out
Polls make campaigns focus on electorate and meeting their needs
People may not be making the best decision
Should politicians listen more to their instincts?
But they do keep politicians accountable