R Measuring Public
Opinion

Thursday,
May 14, 2009

9:00 PM

Survey
or poll

Letters
to politicians

Talking
selectively to people

Listening
to news paper editors

Incomplete picture
however

Letters
more likely from those with strong opinions and writing skills (ie education)

Polls may put public
opinion in the hands of the pollsters

Sponsored
by groups with an agenda

But
most accurate method we have

Early Polling
Methods

Straw
poll

Unscientific

19th
century

Just
ask people their opinion

Like
in malls or with newspaper surveys

But
not a random sampling of people

Must
get all people

(Like
today controversy about cell phones)

Emergence of
Scientific Polling

Started
after World War 1

Businesses
started doing market research

Using math

Random
samples/sampling

George
Gallup started probability sampling techniques

1940:
Roosevelt became first pres to use them

Polls and Politics

Have
become a divine source of wisdom

Bill
Clinton used them a lot

Some
found this negative

Bush
claimed he did not use them

Use
"crafted talk" to make extreme positions sound better

Tracking
polls on TV

Easy
to do

Can
be fairly accurate on well defined issues

But
inaccurate when public has not made up mind

Wording
plays a large part

Self
selecting (call in) polls are for entertainment purposes only, as people who
call in are more likely to complain

Often
times polls are just for show

To
reinforce an opinion

Some
tricks

Push
poll where if people answer "wrong" are told something bad

Or
phony polls which is a disguised sales pitch

Polls
may lead some good candidates to drop out

Polls
make campaigns focus on electorate and meeting their needs

People
may not be making the best decision

Should
politicians listen more to their instincts?

But
they do keep politicians accountable

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R Measuring Public
Opinion

Thursday,
May 14, 2009

9:00 PM

Survey
or poll

Letters
to politicians

Talking
selectively to people

Listening
to news paper editors

Incomplete picture
however

Letters
more likely from those with strong opinions and writing skills (ie education)

Polls may put public
opinion in the hands of the pollsters

Sponsored
by groups with an agenda

But
most accurate method we have

Early Polling
Methods

Straw
poll

Unscientific

19th
century

Just
ask people their opinion

Like
in malls or with newspaper surveys

But
not a random sampling of people

Must
get all people

(Like
today controversy about cell phones)

Emergence of
Scientific Polling

Started
after World War 1

Businesses
started doing market research

Using math

Random
samples/sampling

George
Gallup started probability sampling techniques

1940:
Roosevelt became first pres to use them

Polls and Politics

Have
become a divine source of wisdom

Bill
Clinton used them a lot

Some
found this negative

Bush
claimed he did not use them

Use
"crafted talk" to make extreme positions sound better

Tracking
polls on TV

Easy
to do

Can
be fairly accurate on well defined issues

But
inaccurate when public has not made up mind

Wording
plays a large part

Self
selecting (call in) polls are for entertainment purposes only, as people who
call in are more likely to complain

Often
times polls are just for show

To
reinforce an opinion

Some
tricks

Push
poll where if people answer "wrong" are told something bad

Or
phony polls which is a disguised sales pitch

Polls
may lead some good candidates to drop out

Polls
make campaigns focus on electorate and meeting their needs

People
may not be making the best decision

Should
politicians listen more to their instincts?

But
they do keep politicians accountable